| 陈国娇,田瑞强.中国科技论文外流态势监测指数设计和应用[J].数字图书馆论坛,2024,20(1):33~38 |
| 中国科技论文外流态势监测指数设计和应用 |
| Design and Application of the Monitoring Index for the Outflow of Chinese Scientific Papers |
| 投稿时间：2023-10-23 |
| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.1673-2286.2024.01.004 |
| 中文关键词: 科技论文；论文；科技期刊；SCI论文；时间序列分析 |
| 英文关键词: Outflow of Scientific Papers; Scientific Journal; SCI Paper; Time-Series Analysis |
| 基金项目:本研究得到中国科学技术信息研究所创新研究基金-青年项目“‘破五唯’背景下学术评价的突破点研究”（编号：QN2023-10）资助。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 陈国娇 | 中国科学技术信息研究所 | | 田瑞强 | 中国科学技术信息研究所；医学期刊知识挖掘与服务重点实验室 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 科研成果是国家走向科技自立自强的重要战略资源，科技论文是科研成果的重要载体。科技论文的外流为我国科技发展和国家安全带来诸多负面影响。为了全面了解我国科技论文外流情况，通过采集1987—2022年发表在非中国SCI科技期刊上的中国论文数据，借助ARMA模型建立中国科技论文外流数量预测模型，并设计中国科技论文外流态势监测指数进行应用分析。结果表明，中国科技论文并非一直处于外流的状态，中国科技论文外流态势监测指数在1988—1995年快速下降，在1996—2006年快速上升，在2006年以后逐渐趋于稳定。从外流情况来看，中国科技论文在1990—2003年未表现出外流特征，在2004—2021年出现持续外流的特征，在2022年表现出回流的特征。要进一步扭转我国科技论文外流趋势，需要从几个方面重点发力：加快进行科研评价体系改革；在关键领域鼓励创办优秀英文科技期刊；扩大国际合作范围，加深国际合作。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Scientific research achievements are important strategic resources for a country to strive for technological self-reliance. Scientific papers serve as an important form of carrying out these research achievements. The outflow of scientific papers has brought many negative impacts on China’s scientific and technological development and national security. In order to comprehensively understand the outflow of scientific papers in China, this study collects data on papers published in non-Chinese SCI scientific journals from 1987 to 2022 in China. The ARMA model is applied to establish a predictive model for the outflow of Chinese scientific papers and we design a monitoring index for the outflow trend for application analysis. It is found that Chinese scientific papers have not always been in a state of outflow. The monitoring index for the outflow trend of Chinese scientific papers declines from 1988 to 1995, increases rapidly from 1996 to 2006, and almost remains the same after 2006. From the perspective of outflow, Chinese scientific papers do not show outflow characteristics from 1990 to 2003, but show sustained outflow characteristics from 2004 to 2021, and show reflux characteristics in 2022. To further reverse the outflow trend of Chinesescientific papers, it is necessary to focus on three aspects, including accelerating the reform of the research evaluation system, encouraging the establishment of excellent English scientific journals in key areas, and expanding the scope of international cooperation and promoting in-depth international cooperation. |
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