| 尹业兴,陈婷婷,邓秋苹,孙月梅.县级政府网络舆情回应效果组态归因研究——基于舆情生命周期的多阶段fsQCA方法[J].数字图书馆论坛,2025,21(10):64~77 |
| 县级政府网络舆情回应效果组态归因研究——基于舆情生命周期的多阶段fsQCA方法 |
| Configurational Attribution Analysis of County-Level Governments’ Online Public Opinion Response Efficacy: Multi-Stage fsQCA Method Based on Public Opinion Lifecycle |
| 投稿时间：2025-09-15 |
| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.1673-2286.2025.10.007 |
| 中文关键词: 网络舆情；政府回应；生命周期；组态分析；情感分析；县级政府 |
| 英文关键词: Online Public Opinion; Government Response; Lifecycle; Configuration Analysis; Sentiment Analysis; County-Level Government |
| 基金项目:本研究得到国家社会科学基金西部项目“生成式人工智能背景下涉藏舆论意识形态风险及防范研究”（编号：24XKS027）、四川省社会科学院科研创新团队建设资助。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 尹业兴 | 四川省社会科学院农村发展研究所 | | 陈婷婷 | 四川省社会科学院农村发展研究所 | | 邓秋苹 | 四川省社会科学院智库工作处；四川省社会科学院网络舆情研究中心 | | 孙月梅 | 四川省社会科学院农村发展研究所 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 运用舆情生命周期理论与多阶段fsQCA方法，对40个典型网络舆情案例进行深度解析，揭示了影响县级政府网络舆情回应效果的关键要素组态及其作用路径。通过结合LDA模型与TF-IDF模型的文本挖掘技术，动态追踪舆情演进中公众期望的演化轨迹，进一步剖析了不同情境下回应策略与回应效果之间的内在作用机理，构建了提升县级政府舆情治理“时度效”的可操作决策支持框架。研究结果表明，网络舆情治理呈现显著的系统性和复杂性，在舆情发展的不同阶段，事件特征、权威媒体、府际合作、回应速度、回应内容、回应态度通过不同的组态路径，对县级政府回应效果产生影响。县级政府应强化分阶施策、精准分类与动态循势的治理策略，以实现回应效果的最优化。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This research uses public opinion lifecycle theory and multi-stage fsQCA to deeply analyze 40 typical online public opinion cases. It uncovers key element configurations and their action pathways affecting county-level governments’ response efficacy. Employing text mining with LDA and TF-IDF models, it dynamically tracks public expectation evolution during online public opinion development. It further explores the interaction mechanisms between response strategy and efficacy in different contexts and builds an operational decision-support framework to enhance the timeliness, appropriateness, and effectiveness of county-level governments’ governance. The findings indicate that online public opinion governance is highly systematic and complex. At different development stages, event feature, authoritative media, intergovernmental collaboration, response speed, response content, and response stance impact county-level governments’ response efficacy via diverse configurational pathways. County-level governments should strengthen stage-specific, precise, and dynamic governance strategies to optimize response efficacy. |
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