| 李桂鑫*,王莹*,开赛尔·艾斯卡尔**,史青林***,于洋**,刘宇行***.碳双控政策影响下碳排放预测及电力减排路径研究[J].高技术通讯(中文),2025,35(9):1003~1015 |
| 碳双控政策影响下碳排放预测及电力减排路径研究 |
| Research on carbon emission prediction and power grid role sector carbon reduction pathways under dual carbon control policy |
| |
| DOI：10. 3772 / j. issn. 1002-0470. 2025. 09. 009 |
| 中文关键词: 能耗双控； 碳排放双控； 碳排放； 碳配额； 碳脱钩； 电力 |
| 英文关键词: dual control of energy consumption, dual control of carbon emissions, carbon emissions, carbon allowance, carbon decoupling, electric power |
| 基金项目: |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 李桂鑫* | （*国网天津市电力公司天津 300010）
（**中国电力科学研究院有限公司北京 100089）
（***国网天津市电力公司双碳运营管理分公司天津 300010） | | 王莹* | | | 开赛尔·艾斯卡尔** | | | 史青林*** | | | 于洋** | | | 刘宇行*** | |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 16 |
| 全文下载次数: 15 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 中国政府为应对资源约束和环境污染，提出了“能耗双控”和“碳排放双控”政策。本文分析了“能耗双控”向“碳排放双控”转变的原因、过程及其差异，旨在为主管部门和行业落实碳排放政策提供参考。研究指出，全球气候变化和经济转型都需要行业主管部门采取合理的碳排放管理措施。通过机器学习和时间序列模型，预测城市的碳排放量、国内生产总值(gross domestic product，GDP)及碳排放强度，帮助合理规划碳配额并制定各行业排放标准。此外，本文还探讨了电力行业在“双控”政策下的节能减排路径，对推动政策实施具有重要意义。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Chinese government has proposed the ‘Dual Control of Energy Consumption’ and ‘Dual Control of Carbon Emissions’ policies to address resource constraints and serious environmental pollution. This paper analyzes the reasons, process, and differences in the transition from ‘dual control of energy consumption’ to ‘dual control of carbon emissions,’ providing a reference for the government and industry in implementing carbon emission policies. The study highlights that global climate change and economic transformation pressures require the government to adopt stricter carbon emission management measures. By using machine learning and time-series models, the carbon emissions, gross domestic product (GDP), and carbon intensity of cities are predicted, helping to rationally allocate carbon quotas and effectively limit emissions from various industries. Additionally, the paper discusses the energy-saving and emission-reduction pathways in the power sector under the dual control policy, covering the supply side, consumption side, grid side, and policy coordination, which is of significant importance for the implementation of the dual control of carbon emissions policy. |
|
查看全文
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 关闭 |
|
|
|
