| 孙云杰,玄兆辉.德国技术预测发展历程、特征及对中国的启示[J].全球科技经济瞭望,2026,41(4):1~8,51 |
| 德国技术预测发展历程、特征及对中国的启示 |
| The Development History, Characteristics, and Implicationsfor China of German Technology Forecasting |
| 投稿时间：2026-01-13 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 德国技术预测；预测方法；周期性预测 |
| 英文关键词: German Technology Forecast; Prediction Methods; Periodic Prediction |
| 基金项目:科技部科技强国建设重大问题研究专项“支撑科技强国建设的区域监测评价研究及报告起草”（2025QGZX004）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 德国技术预测经历了40 多年的发展，形成了颇具特色的工作体系。技术预测组织架构日趋
完善，预测理论不断深化，预测方法体系日益丰富，预测成果不仅支撑了政府部门科技管理决策，也
进一步强化了与社会公众的互动。借鉴德国经验，中国技术预测要注重周期性与即时性的协调，强化
技术预测工作的开放性和包容性，注重技术预测成果的多渠道与多场景应用。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| After more than 40 years of development, Germany has established a distinctive operational
framework for technology forecasting. The organizational structure of technology forecasting has been steadily
improved, forecasting theories have been progressively refined, and the system of forecasting methods has been
continuously matured. The forecasting results have not only supported the decision-making of government
departments in science and technology management but also enhanced interaction with the public. In light of
Germany’s experience, China’s technology forecasting should focus on the coordination of periodicity and
immediacy, strengthen the openness and inclusiveness of technology forecasting work, and pay attention to the
multi-channel and multi-scenario application of technology forecasting results. |
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