| 张聪慧,姚景怡,田春芝.美国主要智库关于对华芯片管制政策的研判
及启示镜鉴[J].全球科技经济瞭望,2026,41(6):11~20 |
| 美国主要智库关于对华芯片管制政策的研判
及启示镜鉴 |
| Analysis and Insights from Leading U.S. Think Tanks on Chip Control Policies Toward China |
| 投稿时间：2026-04-26 |
| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.1009-8623.2026.06.002 |
| 中文关键词: 半导体产业；中美科技竞争；出口管制；美国智库 |
| 英文关键词: Semiconductor Industry; U.S.-China Technology Competition; Export Controls; U.S. Think Tanks |
| 基金项目:上海市软科学研究重点项目“全球科技智库热点跟踪研究”（24692100700）；上海市软科学研究重点项目“重点新兴领域政策供给与沙盒监管研究”（25692122300）；上海市法学会国家安全法律研究会 2026 年度课题（2026SNSL03）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 半导体已成为中美科技竞争的核心议题。2022 年以来，美国在“小院高墙”策略后构建全链条对华出口管制体系并推动盟友协同。2025 年以来，特朗普政府在延续遏华目标的同时，出现以“收入分成”换取出口许可的“交易化”转向。系统梳理 2022—2026 年间美国对华半导体管制政策的演进，并以美国主要智库的最新研判为切入点，归纳其在管制成效、关键卡点、中国产业进展与战略范式四个维度上的核心争论。研究发现，管制虽短期内迟滞了中国先进制程的进程，却也加速了中国的“去美国化”，侵蚀了美国企业的市场份额与研发投入，呈现明显的反噬效应。在此基础上，从自主攻关与尊重产业规律相结合、用好超大规模市场、聚焦真实卡点、统筹发展和安全、坚持高水平开放、强化战略预警六个方面，提出对中国的启示建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Semiconductors have become the strategic core of the U.S.-China technology competition. Since 2022, the United States has built a full-chain export control system targeting China under the guise of “small yard, high fence” and has encouraged its allies to coordinate their efforts. Since 2025, while continuing its goal of containing China, the Trump administration has shifted toward a “transactional” approach, exchanging export licenses for “revenue sharing.” This paper systematically traces the evolution of U.S. semiconductor control
policies toward China from 2022 to 2026. Taking the latest assessments from leading U.S. think tanks as a starting point, it summarizes the core debates across four dimensions: the effectiveness of controls, key bottlenecks, China’s industrial progress, and strategic paradigms. The study finds that while the controls have temporarily slowed China’s progress in advanced semiconductor processes, they have also accelerated China’s “deAmericanization” of U.S. technology, eroding U.S. companies’ market share and R&D investment, and resulting in a clear backlash effect. Building on this, this paper offers insights for China in six areas: combining independent R&D with respect for industrial laws; leveraging the super-large market; focusing on genuine bottlenecks; balancing development and security; adhering to high-level openness; and strengthening strategic early warning. |
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