| 白 晨 马翠娜.前沿技术产业化潜力评价研究及实证分析——以下一代动力电池为例[J].中国科技资源导刊,2025,(4):37~50 |
| 前沿技术产业化潜力评价研究及实证分析——以下一代动力电池为例 |
| Research and Empirical Analysis on the Evaluation of Industrialization Potential for Cutting-edge Technologies——Taking Next-Generation Battery Power as an Example |
| 投稿时间：2025-06-08 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 前沿技术;产业化;潜力评价;下一代动力电池 |
| 英文关键词: cutting-edge technologies, industrialization, potential evaluation, next-generation power batteries |
| 基金项目:中信所创新研究基金青年项目“专利信息驱动的产业技术生态位评价体系构建与应用”(QN2025-20)。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 白 晨 马翠娜 | (中国科学技术信息研究所，北京 100038) |
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| 摘要点击次数: 18 |
| 全文下载次数: 31 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 聚焦前沿技术产业化潜力评价。首先，基于产业化潜力具有受多因素影响、动态变化、呈未完成状态等特征，因此构建“技术先进性—产业化可能性”双维评价模型，整合技术成熟度、市场适配性与政策赋能等多维要素，形成包含5个二级、11个三级指标的多层次评价体系。其次，对下一代动力电池技术开展实证研究，采集6类电池技术的专利、政策、市场等8类数据，结果显示固态电池与氢燃料电池的产业化潜力最大，中国在6类电池产业化潜力评价中均位居前列。最后，提出构建核心突破、快速转化与前瞻布局三位一体并进的动力电池创新生态，开展差异化技术发展战略。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| This study focuses on evaluating the industrialization potential of cutting-edge technologies. Recognizing that industrialization potential is characterized by its susceptibility to multiple factors, dynamic nature, and incomplete state; we construct a dual-axis evaluation model based on “technical advancement-industrialization feasibility”. This model integrates multidimensional elements, including Technology Readiness Level (TRL), market compatibility, and policy empowerment, , to form a multi-tiered evaluation system comprising 5 secondary indicators and 11 tertiary indicators. An empirical study was conducted on next-generation power battery technologies. Utilizing eight categories of data (patents, policies, market trends, etc.) across six battery technologies, the results indicate that solid-state batteries and hydrogen fuel cells possess the greatest industrialization prospects. China ranks prominently with leading potential across all six battery technology categories evaluated. Finally, the study proposes establishing a tripartite power battery innovation ecosystem centered on “core breakthroughs-rapid transformation- forward-looking deployment” and advocates for differentiated technology development strategies. |
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