| 熊书玲1 侯 禹 2 徐宏帅 3 赵显基 1.未来技术产业化潜力研究——以管式固体氧化物燃料电池为例[J].中国科技资源导刊,2025,(5):22~32 |
| 未来技术产业化潜力研究——以管式固体氧化物燃料电池为例 |
| Research on the Potential of Future Technology Industrialization: A Case Study of Tubular Solid Oxide Fuel Cell |
| 投稿时间：2025-02-17 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 未来技术;产业化潜力;扎根理论;模糊综合评价法;层次分析法;管式固体氧化物燃料电池 |
| 英文关键词: future technology, industrialization potential, grounded theory, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process, tubular solid oxide fuel cell |
| 基金项目:中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费二期重点工作项目“未来技术产业化成熟度研究”(ZD2023-16)。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 熊书玲1 侯 禹 2 徐宏帅 3 赵显基 1 | (1. 中国科学技术信息研究所，北京 100038
2. 北京通用人工智能研究院，北京 100080
3. 中国劳动关系学院，北京 100048) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 未来技术产业处于孕育萌发阶段或产业化初期，目前国内外关于评价未来技术产业化潜力的研究甚少。在基于扎根理论分析未来技术产业化影响因素的基础上，从创新成果、创新转化、创新产品、创新主体、应用场景5个维度，以未来技术产业化过程中涉及的发明机构、孵化企业、政府机构、服务机构、产业链上下游等相关者为研究对象，采用模糊综合评价法、层次分析法和专家问卷法来综合研判未来技术产业化潜力，并选用管式固体氧化物燃料电池技术进行实证研究。研究结果表明，实证技术在技术承接方、产业上下游、市场环境方面是产业化的短板，需要进一步完善工程化、量产化工作，明确应用场景及市场。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The future industry is in the stage of incubation or early industrialization. At present, there are few researches on evaluating the potential of future technological industrialization both domestically and internationally. On the basis of analyzing the influencing factors of future technology industrialization based on grounded theory, from five dimensions of innovation achievements, innovation transformation, innovation products, innovation subjects, and application scenarios, the invention institutions, incubation enterprises, government agencies, service organizations, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain involved in the process of future technology industrialization were took as research objects, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process and expert questionnaire method were used to comprehensively judge the industrialization potential of future technology, and the tubular solid oxide fuel cell technology was selected for empirical research. The results indicate that the empirical technology is a weak link in industrialization in terms of technology providers, upstream and downstream industries, and market environment. Further improvement in engineering and mass production work is needed to clarify application scenarios and markets. |
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