| 方 伟,曹学伟,高晓巍.技术预测与技术预见：内涵、方法及实践[J].全球科技经济瞭望,2017,32(3):46~53 |
| 技术预测与技术预见：内涵、方法及实践 |
| Technology Forecasting and Foresight:Concepts, Methods, and Practices |
| 投稿时间：2017-03-10 修订日期：2017-03-10 |
| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.1009-8623.2017.03.008 |
| 中文关键词: 技术预测；技术预见；内涵；方法；实践 |
| 英文关键词: technology forecasting; technology foresight; concepts; methods; practices |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2703 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 随着技术在经济和社会发展中起着日益重要的作用，技术预测和预见活动逐步兴起，本文旨在对技术预测和预见的理论和实践相关内容进行阐述。首先，对两个概念从内涵、特征、要素等维度的差异进行辨析；其次，对技术预测和预见中采用的方法及分类进行阐述；然后，以美国、英国、日本和俄罗斯为例，分析其技术预测和预见活动以及所采用的方法；最后，基于以上理论、方法和实践层面的分析，提出对我国技术预测和预见活动的借鉴和启示。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| With an increasingly significant role that technology plays in economic and social development, many countries have started technology forecasting and foresight activities. This paper aims to address the concepts, methods and practices surrounding technology forecasting and foresight. First of all, comparisons are made between these two concepts in terms of conceptualization, characteristics, and elements, etc. The second part of this paper presents methods used in these two types of activities. The third part examines technology forecasting and foresight activities in US, UK, Japan and Russia. The last part addresses implications for technology forecasting and foresight activities conducted in China. |
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