| 孙云杰,袁立科,陈 萍.德国第三轮技术预测研究及启示[J].全球科技经济瞭望,2023,38(7):15~20 |
| 德国第三轮技术预测研究及启示 |
| Research and Enlightenment on Germany’s Technology Foresight(Cycle Ⅲ) |
| 投稿时间：2023-05-28 |
| DOI：10.3772/j.issn.1009-8623.2023.07.003 |
| 中文关键词: 德国；技术预测；预测方法；未来议题 |
| 英文关键词: Germany, technology foresight; foresight methods; future issues |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 德国是欧洲率先开展体制化技术预测的国家，此后欧洲各国政府纷纷开展技术预测活动。
2019 年德国启动第三轮技术预测，聚焦 21世纪 30 年代的技术和社会发展，对德国社会价值观的变化、
未来的新议题和新趋势做出研判，并对教育和研究相关议题进行评估。分析德国第三轮技术预测的
组织实施特点、工作内容和研究方法，可以为中国技术预测工作提供借鉴。中国技术预测应在“大预
测观”、“大预测体系”、预测方法和预测成果应用等方面予以加强。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Germany is the first country in Europe to carry out institutionalized technology forecasting,
marking the beginning of European governments’ technology forecasting activities. In 2019, Germany launched
Germany’s technology foresight (Cycle Ⅲ), focusing on the technological and social development of the 2030s.
Analyzing the organizational implementation characteristics, work content and research methods of Germany’s
technology foresight (Cycle Ⅲ) can provide reference for China’s technology foresight. China’s technology
foresight should be strengthened in terms of the concept of foresight concept, foresight system, foresight
methods, and application of foresight results. |
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