| 曹 悦 白 晨 张 越 张玄玄.产业技术链风险测度模型研究——以动力电池产业技术链上游为例[J].中国科技资源导刊,2025,(2):8~18 |
| 产业技术链风险测度模型研究——以动力电池产业技术链上游为例 |
| Research on Risk Measurement Models for Industrial Technology Chains—Take the Upstream of the Power Battery Industry Technology Chain as an Example |
| 投稿时间：2024-10-11 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 产业技术链;产业链;技术风险;风险测度;动力电池 |
| 英文关键词: industry technology chain, industry chain, technology risk, risk measurement, power battery |
| 基金项目:中国科学技术信息研究所创新研究基金青年项目“产业技术链风险测度模型构建与应用研究”(QN2024-06) |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 曹 悦 白 晨 张 越 张玄玄 | (中国科学技术信息研究所，北京 100038) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 面对复杂的国际产业科技竞争态势，产业链关键技术实力关乎产业链整体安全。通过科学、客观方法评估产业技术风险对于加强薄弱环节技术布局、促进产业健康发展具有实际意义。从技术强度差距和产业技术价值维度确定产业技术风险测度指标体系，并将其转化为通过专利数据计算的客观指标，构建定性与定量相结合的产业技术链风险测度模型。以动力电池产业上游为例进行实证分析，与美国、日本进行对比分析发现我国在电解质和隔膜技术环节存在的风险较高，建议未来进一步强化固态电解质、湿法隔膜制备工艺以及负极硅碳新材料体系攻关，以提升产业技术链安全性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In the face of complex international industrial science and technology competition, the key technological strength of the industrial chain is related to the overall security of the industrial chain, and it is of practical significance to assess the industrial technology risk through scientific and objective methods in order to strengthen the technological layout of weak links and promote the healthy development of the industry. From the dimension of technology strength gap and industrial technology value, we determine the index system of industrial technology risk measurement, transform it into objective indexes calculated by patent data, and construct the risk measurement model of industrial technology chain combining qualitative and quantitative. Taking the upstream of power battery industry as an example for empirical analysis, through comparative analysis with the United States and Japan, it is found that China has higher risks in electrolyte and diaphragm technology, and it is suggested to further strengthen the solid electrolyte, wet diaphragm preparation process and anode silicon-carbon new material system in the future, so as to improve the security of industrial technology chain. |
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