| 冯 文 姜明月 张惠莉 张 舒 朱 青.基于 CRITIC–TOPSIS 的科技成果转化指标体系与综合测度研究——以山东省为例[J].中国科技资源导刊,2026,(1):85~98 |
| 基于 CRITIC–TOPSIS 的科技成果转化指标体系与综合测度研究——以山东省为例 |
| Research on the Indicator System and Composite Measurement of Technology Transfer Based on CRITIC–TOPSIS—A Case Study of Shandong Province |
| 投稿时间：2025-10-20 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 科技成果转化;评价指标体系;CRITIC-TOPSIS;数据包络分析;预测分析 |
| 英文关键词: technology transfer, assessment indicator system, CRITIC–TOPSIS, DEA, forecasting |
| 基金项目:2025年度山东省人文社科青年重点项目“山东促进科技创新与产业创新深度融合的科技成果转化体系研究”;2025年度山东省重点研发计划(软科学项目)“科技奖励激励科技创新实施路径研究”(2025RZB0111)。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 冯 文 姜明月 张惠莉 张 舒 朱 青 | (山东省创新发展研究院，山东济南 250101) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 面向省域科技成果转化的常态化监测与政策评估需求，构建多维度的评价指标体系与测度框架，提供可复核的年度量化依据。以山东省2018—2023年省级年度数据为研究对象，从科技资源投入、科技成果产出、产业化绩效、环境支撑4个维度遴选17项指标并统一预处理;以CRITIC-TOPSIS测算综合与分维指数，评估在当前山东省科技资源投入下的效率表现并识别可提效环节;生成2024—2029年山东省科技成果转化指标体系年份预测值及95%区间，并通过标准化方式替换与差异诊断检验结果的稳定性。由于数据覆盖与颗粒度有限，结论的推广仍需依托更丰富、更细化的数据完善。山东省科技成果转化稳步上行，2019年后增幅明显;四维呈“产出与环境支撑提升较快，绩效随后跟进，投入相对平缓”趋势，成果产出驱动机制由“加大投入”转向“成果供给增强+产业承接增强”的协同提升。由预测结果可知，科技成果产出与环境支撑仍将持续向好，整体态势良好并有望进一步增强。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To support routine monitoring and policy evaluation of technology transfer of Province, we construct a multi-dimensional evaluation indicator system and measurement framework that provide auditable annual quantitative evidence. Using Shandong’s provincial annual data for 2018–2023 as the study sample, we select 17 indicators across four dimensions—S&T input, S&T output, industrialization performance, and environmental support—and apply unified preprocessing; compute composite and dimension-wise indexes via CRITIC- TOPSIS; assess efficiency under current provincial S&T inputs to identify improvement room; generate year- ahead predictions for 2024–2029 with 95% confidence intervals; and test the stability of the test results through standardization replacement and difference diagnostics. Given constraints in data coverage and granularity, the generalizability of conclusions requires enrichment with more comprehensive and finer-grained data. Shandong’s technology transfer has risen steadily, with a marked acceleration after 2019. The four dimensions shows that “output and environmental support are rising relatively quickly, performance follows, while input remains relatively moderate”. The growth driver has shifted from simple “more input” to a coordinated improvement of research output and industrial absorption capacity. Forecasts indicate that technology transfer output and environmental support will continue to improve, keeping the outlook positive with further enhancement expected. |
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