| 曹 悦 白 晨 张英杰 张玄玄 张 越 李妙钰.颠覆性技术识别模型研究
——以工业机器人领域为例[J].中国科技资源导刊,2022,(2):81~92 |
| 颠覆性技术识别模型研究
——以工业机器人领域为例 |
| Research on Disruptive Technology Recognition Model——Taking Industrial Robots as an Example |
| 投稿时间：2021-10-20 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 颠覆性技术；技术识别；模型构建；层次分析法；工业机器人 |
| 英文关键词: disruptive technology, technology identification, model construction, analytic hierarchy process
(AHP), industrial robots |
| 基金项目:中国科学技术信息研究所创新研究基金青年项目“基于地平线扫描的技术识别方法研究”（QN2021-07）。 |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 曹 悦 白 晨 张英杰 张玄玄 张 越 李妙钰 | （中国科学技术信息研究所，北京 100038） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 识别和监测潜在的颠覆性技术，对于企业和国家在发展过程及未来规划中及时调整技术创新战略、规避风
险具有重大战略意义。本文阐述颠覆性技术的概念及特征，对比分析颠覆性技术的识别方法，在技术特征和市场特征
两个维度下以技术可行性、技术突破性、技术集成性、技术前沿性、技术影响力5个指标构建颠覆性技术评价指标体
系，建立基于层次分析法的颠覆性技术识别模型。以高端装备制造业中的工业机器人领域为例，梳理产业技术概况，
对产业链上下游具有颠覆性潜力的技术进行识别，分析其可能对产业带来的影响，提出相应的政策建议。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Identifying and monitoring potentially disruptive technologies is of great strategic significance for
companies and countries to adjust their technological innovation strategies and avoid risks in the development
process and future planning. By expounding the concepts and characteristics of disruptive technologies, comparing
and analyzing the identification methods of disruptive technologies, the five dimensions of technological feasibility,
technological breakthrough, technological integration, technological frontier, and technological influence are based
on the two dimensions of technological characteristics and market characteristics. This paper constructs a disruptive
technology evaluation index system, and establishes a disruptive technology identification model based on the analytic
hierarchy process. Take the field of industrial robots in the high-end equipment manufacturing industry as an example,
sort out the overview of industrial technology, identify technologies with disruptive potential in the upstream and
downstream of the industrial chain, analyze their possible impact on the industry, and make policy recommendations. |
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